Geopolitical Earthquake In The Middle East
In September Of The Year 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Stood At The Podium Of The United Nations General Assembly In Its Seventy-Third Session, To Deliver A Speech That Was Not Merely A Conventional Warning Against Iranian Nuclear Ambitions, But Rather Served As An Unofficial Announcement Of The Birth Of A New Geopolitical Architecture In The Middle East. Netanyahu Said In A Dramatic Tone That The 2015 Iranian Nuclear Deal (The Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action), Despite Its Fatal Flaws That Strengthened Tehran, Had Resulted In A Single Unintended Positive Outcome: This Common Threat Had Brought Israel And Many Arab Countries Closer Together With Bonds Of Friendship And Amity He Had Not Witnessed In His Entire Life, Relationships That Just A Few Years Ago Were A Form Of Impossible Fantasy.
This Statement Was Not Merely A Rhetorical Maneuver; Rather, It Was An Explicit Expression Of A Deep Transformation That Transcended The Logic Of Traditional “Realpolitik” Into New Horizons Of Strategic And Technological Cooperation. The Book “Fraternal Enemies: Israel And The Gulf Monarchies”, Published By Oxford University Press By Authors Professor Clive Jones And Dr. Yoel Guzansky, Reformulates Our Understanding Of This Exceptional Regional Transformation. The Two Authors Present An Academic Study Based On Exceptional Expertise; Guzansky Is A Senior Researcher At The Institute For National Security Studies At Tel Aviv University And Previously Served As The Official In Charge Of Strategic Issues In The National Security Council At The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, While Jones Holds The Chair Of Regional And Middle Eastern Security At Durham University In Britain.
This Book Takes Us On A Tight Analytical Journey To Understand How Israeli-Gulf Relations Transformed From A State Of Absolute Rejection And Ideological Enmity Into A Complex Pattern Of Strategic Partnership That The Authors Describe As A “Tacit Security Regime”. It Is A Regime In Which Security, Economic, And Technological Interests Are Intertwined Behind The Scenes, While The Political Facade Remains Governed By Considerations Of Local Legitimacy And The Sensitivity Of The Palestinian Cause In The Arab Street.
From The Three Noes To Geopolitical Pragmatism: A Reading In The Context Of Transformation
In Order To Understand The Depth Of The Transformation Proposed By Jones And Guzansky, One Must Return Via Geopolitical Memory To The Legacy Of The “Sykes-Picot” Agreement And The Regional State System Formed After World War II. For Many Decades, The Collective Arab Position Was Characterized By The Categorical Rejection Of The Small Entity As A Legitimate Sovereign Entity, A Position Formally Consecrated In The Famous Khartoum Declaration In November 1967, Following The Arab Defeat, Which Raised “The Three Noes”: No Recognition Of Israel, No Negotiation With Israel, No Peace With Israel.
And Although History Tells Us That Secret Cracks Appeared Early In This Solid Wall Through Under-The-Table Relations Led By Countries Like Jordan And Morocco For Decades, And Despite The Public Fracture Caused By The Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty In 1979, Followed By The Oslo Accords In 1993, And The Wadi Araba Treaty With Jordan In 1994, The Arab Gulf Monarchies Historically Continued To Adopt A Dual Path. This Path Was Based, On One Hand, On The Public Condemnation Of Settlement Building And Israeli Violations Of Palestinian Rights, And On The Other Hand, On Exploring The Pragmatism Stemming From The Strategic Need To Face Common Threats, Which Gradually Pushed The Palestinian Cause From The Center Of Attention To The Margins In The Calculations Of Ruling Elites.
Professor Itamar Rabinovich, The Former Israeli Ambassador And Professor Emeritus At Tel Aviv University, Reinforces This Context In His Preface To The Book By Pointing To The Stark Historical Paradox. In March 1945, American President Franklin Roosevelt Stood Before Congress Following His Historic Meeting With King Abdulaziz Al Saud Aboard The Warship “Quincy” In The Bitter Lakes, To Say That He Learned About The Problem Of Muslims And Jews In Five Minutes Of His Conversation With Ibn Saud More Than He Would Have Learned From Dozens Of Letters. The Saudi King Attempted Then To Dissuade Washington From Supporting The Establishment Of A Jewish State, And Direct And Indirect Saudi Pressure—Through Oil And Diplomacy—Became A Permanent Dimension In The Formulation Of American Policy Toward Israel. Therefore, Rabinovich Sees That The Contemporary Tacit Dialogue Between Israel And The Gulf Monarchies, And Their Shared Complaint About The Policies Of The Administration Of Former US President Barack Obama, Represents The Height Of Political Irony And A Radical Shift In The Trajectory Of Regional Relations.
The Conceptual Framework: Deconstructing The “Tacit Security Regime” (TSR)
The Primary Theoretical Innovation Presented By The Book “Fraternal Enemies” Lies In The Formulation Of The Concept Of The Tacit Security Regime (TSR) As An Explanatory Tool That Transcends The Shortcomings Of Traditional Theories In International Relations. The Two Authors Reject Superimposing Western Institutional Liberal Concepts—Such As The European Union Model, Which Is Based On Promoting Shared Liberal Values And Codified Legal Rules—Onto The Israeli-Gulf Case. In Contrast, They Also Reject Merely Settling For The Classical Realist Approach Of Inbar And Sandler, Which Explains Regional Stability Through A “Laissez-Faire” System Based Exclusively On Overwhelming Israeli Military Deterrence Power That Forces Other Parties To Grudgingly Accept The Status Quo.
Instead, Jones And Guzansky Revive And Develop Robert Jervis’s Ideas Regarding The “Concert Of Europe” And Janice Gross Stein’s Ideas, Which Saw That The Arab-Israeli Conflict Was No Longer A Zero-Sum Competition But Rather Conflict Management That Recognizes The Rules Of The Game And Reciprocity. However, Their Fundamental Starting Point Was Aharon Klieman’s Thesis On The “Tacit International Security Regime” That Managed Secret Relations Between Israel And Jordan Before The 1994 Treaty As “Adversaries, Not Enemies”, Where Tensions Were Managed Through Unwritten Understandings And Back-Channels Under The Table.
The Tacit Security Regime Between Israel And The Gulf Monarchies, As Defined By The Book, Is Based On Six Determinants:
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Transcending Geography: Geographical Distance Is No Longer An Obstacle That Determines The Intensity Or Nature Of Strategic And Economic Exchange Between The Parties.
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The External Threat As A Primary Driver: The Regime Does Not Stem From A Desire To Manage Inter-State Relations Between The Countries Themselves, But Rather It Is A Direct Response To The Perception Of A Common Threat Represented By Tehran, As The Regime Works To Curb Inter-Bilateral Rivalries To Ensure The Primary Goal, Which Is Containing Iran.
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Recognition Of Domestic Constraints: The Actors Fully Recognize The Ideological And Emotional Constraints Linked To The Local Legitimacy Of Gulf Regimes (Such As The Symbolism Of Jerusalem And Palestine), Which Prevents Advancing To Formal, Open Diplomatic Relations, Representing A Correction To Classical Realist Theory Which Ignores Internal Determinants.
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Declining Trust In The Greatest Ally: The Regime Reflects Shared Self-Perceptions Regarding The Fluctuation Of The United States’ Commitment To The Security Of Its Allies In The Region.
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Utilizing Technological Soft Power: The Regime Transcends Purely Military Matters To Include Commercial And Investment Exchange, Where Israel Uses Its Technological And Cyber Superiority (Advanced Surveillance And Cybersecurity Systems) As A Sharp-Edged Soft Power That Gulf Regimes Seek To Acquire To Enhance Their Domestic Security.
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Flexibility Of Open And Precise Signaling: The Regime Allows For The Exchange Of Public And Deliberate Signals Aimed, Over Time, At Preparing Local Public Opinion To Accept Dialogue And Absorb Strategic Variables.
The Fracturing Of The Gulf Cooperation Council And The Emergence Of New Geopolitics
The Book Then Moves On To Analyze The Regional Environment That Allowed This Tacit Regime To Grow, Noting That The 2011 Arab Uprisings (The Arab Spring) Represented A Seismic Turning Point That Deconstructed Old Strategic Certainties. These Transformations Led To The Collapse Of The Gulf Cooperation Council As A Unified “Security Complex” Or “Security Community”. If A Security Community Means Agreement Among Members On The Nature Of Threats And How To Confront Them, The Gulf Has Come To Experience A Radical Division Over The Issue Of Iran And How To Deal With Non-State Actors.
These Fractures Were Clearly Manifested In The Regional Rift And The Ostracization Of Qatar In June 2017 By The Trio (Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates, And Bahrain). The Authors Explain With Analytical Irony How Doha Persistently Supported Political Islam Movements Such As The Muslim Brotherhood And Hamas, Whose Ideology Represents An Absolute Antithesis To The Hereditary Monarchical Rule Existing In The Gulf, While This Support Is Built On Immense Wealth Derived From The Absolute Power Of Al Thani. This Gulf Geopolitical Contradiction, Met By The Collapse Of Countries Like Syria And Iraq And The Transformation Of Conflicts Into Bloody Sectarian Politics (Iran Against The Saudi-Emirati-Bahraini Axis), Made Gulf Elites See Convergence With Israel As An Urgent, Indispensable Strategic Need To Contain Expanding Iranian Influence From Baghdad To Beirut And Sana’a. As Researcher Mamoun Fandy Wrote In The Saudi “Asharq Al-Awsat” Newspaper, Arab Countries In Their Weakest Political States Have Become Ready To Sign Comprehensive Deals, A Reality Intelligently Captured By Jerusalem To Reinforce Netanyahu’s Approach Based On The “Outside-In” Strategy. This Approach Rests On Building Normalization And Alliances With The Moderate Arab Perimeter First, In Order To Enter Into Any Future Negotiations With The Palestinians From A Position Of Absolute Power And Control.
Historical Foundations And The Geopolitics Of Back Alleys: From The 1948 War To The Camp David Earthquake
The Intertwined Present Of Israeli-Gulf Relations Cannot Be Understood Without Diving Into The Complex Historical Terrains That Shaped The Consciousness Of Ruling Elites On Both Sides Of Conflict And Cooperation, Terrains To Which Authors Clive Jones And Yoel Guzansky Devote A Broad Analytical Space To Deconstruct What They Call “The Hidden Strategic Memory”. The Book Takes Us Back To The Founding Era, Specifically To The 1948 War And The Subsequent Rise Of The Arab Nationalist Tide Led By Gamal Abdel Nasser, Where The Gulf Monarchies, Emerging And Under British Protection At The Time, Viewed Israel From Two Seemingly Contradictory Yet Geopolitically Complementary Perspectives. The First Perspective Was The Declared Ideological And Pan-Arab Commitment To The Palestinian Cause, Which Was Essential For The Legitimacy Of These Regimes Before Their Peoples And Faced With The Nasserist And Ba’athist Revolutionary Tide That Threatened Their Thrones With Extinction. The Second Perspective Was The Early Realization That Rising Israeli Military Power Could Form, Indirectly, A Regional Curb On Radical Expansionist Projects In The Region, Whether Nasserist Or Communist Backed By The Soviet Union.
The Authors Reveal How The First Cracks In The Wall Of The Gulf Boycott Began To Appear In The 1960s, Specifically During The Yemen War (1962-1967), Where Saudi Arabia Found Itself In Direct Military Confrontation With The Egyptian Army Sent By Nasser To Support The Republican Regime There. At That Critical Moment, The Interests Of Riyadh And Jerusalem Intersected Secretly And Intriguedly; For Israel Saw In The Depletion Of The Egyptian Army In The Mountains Of Yemen A Supreme Security Interest For Itself, And Executed Secret Airdrop Operations Of Weapons And Supplies To The Saudi-Backed Zaidi Royalist Forces Via An Operation Dubbed “Operation Mango”. Although This Cooperation Was Not Direct Or Closely Coordinated Between The Ruling Family In Riyadh And The Israeli Government, But Rather Carried Out Through The Mediation Of British Intelligence And French And British Mercenaries, It Represented The First Structural Breakthrough That Proved To Gulf Elites That Israel Could Be Utilized As A Balancing Regional Actor Against The Existential Threats Facing Their Kingdoms.
The June 1967 War Arrived And Was Followed By The October 1973 War To Radically Rearrange Regional Priorities, Where The Gulf Oil Weapon Emerged As A Terrifying Tool Of Political And Economic Pressure In The Famous 1973 Oil Embargo, An Event That Solidified The Image Of Gulf Countries As A Leading Force In The Economic Confrontation With The West And Israel. Yet Behind This Nationalist And Diplomatic Clamor, A Silent Transformation Was Crystallizing Within Gulf Decision-Making Corridors, As Elites Began To Realize That The Continuation Of Open Military Conflict Threatened The Stability Of International Shipping Lanes And Energy Flows, Which Are The Lifeline Of Gulf Regimes. Hence, The Geopolitical Shock Delivered By Egyptian President Anwar Sadat Through His Visit To Jerusalem In 1977 And His Signing Of The Peace Treaty At Camp David In 1979 Served As The Historical Parting Point That Put An End To The Era Of Major Conventional Wars, Forcing Gulf Capitals To Adopt A New Approach Based On Containing Fallout And Attempting To Formulate An Arab Peace Path That Ensures Regional Stability Without Wholly Surrendering Internationally Recognized Palestinian Rights.
In This Changing Context, Jones And Guzansky Analyze The Transition From Passive Rejection To Political Initiative, Highlighting “The Fahd Peace Plan” Proposed At The Fez Summit In Morocco In 1981, Which Later Transformed Into The “Arab Peace Initiative” At The Beirut Summit In 2002 Led By King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz. The Authors See That These Initiatives, Which Offered Full Arab Recognition And Comprehensive Normalization With Israel In Exchange For Full Withdrawal To The 1967 Borders And The Establishment Of A Palestinian State With East Jerusalem As Its Capital, Represented The First Public Strategic Signal From The Gulf Toward Jerusalem. Although Successive Israeli Governments Rejected The Initiative Or Ignored It Due To Their Refusal To Cede Jerusalem And Settlements Or Discuss The Right Of Return, The Importance Of The Initiative Lies In The Fact That It Broke The Ideological Taboo, Making The Concept Of “Peace And Recognition” Of Israel An Option Placed On The Gulf Table, Awaiting The Right Geopolitical Moment In Which Direct Security Interests Converge To Transcend The Traditional Political Conditions Of The Initiative.
The Decade Of The Nineties, Specifically Following The Madrid Peace Conference In 1991 And The Signing Of The Oslo Accords In 1993, Witnessed The Zenith Of The First Public Gulf Openness Toward Israel Before The New Millennium. Both The Sultanate Of Oman And The State Of Qatar Opened Israeli Trade Representation Offices In Muscat And Doha, And The Then Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin Paid A Historic Public Visit To The Sultanate Of Oman In December 1994 At The Invitation Of Sultan Qaboos, Followed By A Visit By Shimon Peres In 1996 To Oman And Qatar. These Gulf Steps Were An Expression Of Optimism Regarding The Concept Of “The New Middle East” Preached By Peres, Which Was Based On Integrating Israeli Technology With Arab Money And Oil To Create A Zone Of Shared Prosperity. However, This Optimism Soon Collapsed Under The Weight Of Political Assassinations, The Rise Of The Israeli Right Led By Benjamin Netanyahu, And The Outbreak Of The Second Palestinian Intifada In 2000, Prompting Gulf Capitals To Formally Close Or Freeze These Offices Under Pressure From The Arab Street, Returning Dialogue Once More To Its Secret And Veiled Channels, Awaiting The Rise Of A New Regional Danger To Reshape Alliances From Scratch.
The Iranian Engine And The Erosion Of The American Umbrella: Formulating The Shared Threat As A Lever For Strategic Convergence
Authors Clive Jones And Yoel Guzansky Move In This Part Of The Book To Analyze The Shared Security Doctrine That Crystallized Following Two Seismic Geopolitical Transformations That Redrew The Threat Map In The Middle East: The Islamic Revolution In Iran In 1979, And The American Invasion Of Iraq In 2003. The Book Sees That Tehran Transformed, Through Its Adoption Of A Strategy Of Exporting The Revolution And Supporting Non-State Armed Actors, From A Traditional Regional Player Into A Shared Existential Threat That Transcended The Ideological And Historical Differences Between The Hebrew State And The Gulf Monarchies. And If Gulf Capitals Had Historically Viewed Iraq As An Impenetrable Bulwark Against Iranian Geopolitical Expansion, The Overthrow Of Saddam Hussein’s Regime Opened A Sectarian Pandora’s Box, Delivering Baghdad On A Silver Platter To Iranian Influence, Allowing Tehran To Build What Is Known As The “Shiite Crescent” Extending Via A Network Of Proxies From Tehran To Baghdad, Damascus, And Beirut, Reaching Sana’a With The Rise Of The Houthi Movement. This Geopolitical Noose, Which Gulf Countries, Particularly Saudi Arabia And The UAE, Felt Was Tightening Around Their Necks, Matched Structurally With Continuous Israeli Warnings Against The “Iranian Imperial Project” And Tehran’s Nuclear And Missile Ambitions.
However, The Authors Clarify That The Shared Fear Of Iran Was Not Sufficient On Its Own To Drive Them Toward Building The “Tacit Security Regime”; Rather, The Deeper Driver Was The Gradual And Worrying Erosion In The Reliability Of The American Security Umbrella In The Region. The Book Sheds A Revealing Analytical Light On The Era Of Former US President Barack Obama, Which Ruling Elites In Tel Aviv, Riyadh, And Abu Dhabi Consider A Bitter Turning Point And A Strategic Retreat By Washington From Its Historical Commitments To Support Its Traditional Allies. The Obama Administration’s Manner Of Handling The Arab Spring Events In 2011, Along With Its Swift Abandonment Of Old Allies Like Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Formed A Deep Shock For Gulf Thrones, Which Felt That Washington Could Sacrifice Them At Any Moment. But The Major Strategic Stab, From An Identical Gulf And Israeli Perspective, Manifested In The Signing Of The Nuclear Deal With Iran (The Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action) In 2015 Behind The Backs Of Regional Allies, An Agreement In Which Both Parties Saw A Reward For Tehran And An Injection Of Billions Of Dollars Into The Coffers Of The Revolutionary Guard To Fund Regional Expansion, Without Addressing Its Ballistic Missile Program Or Its Destabilizing Behavior.
This Shared Strategic Isolation Generated A Firm Conviction Among Gulf Capitals And Israel That Absolute Reliance On The American Protector Had Become An Unguaranteed Gamble, Prompting Them To Search For Alternative Options To Enhance Self-Regional Security. Within This Space Of Apprehension, Israel Began To Project Itself To Gulf Capitals Not Merely As A Superior Military Power, But As A Solid Strategic Partner Possessing The Political Will And Operational Capability To Confront Iranian Influence Directly And Without Hesitation, Contrary To American Vacation. Guzansky And Jones Analyze How Secret Meetings Began To Intensify Behind The Scenes In European Capitals And In Intelligence Corridors, Where Sensitive Security Information Regarding The Movements Of The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Weapons Smuggling, And Tehran’s Cyber Activities Was Exchanged. This Silent Intelligence Cooperation Transformed Over Time Into A Fundamental Pillar Of The Tacit Security Regime, Where Israel Provided Technological And Informational Depth, While Gulf States Provided Geographical And Financial Depth, Creating A New Pattern Of Power Balance Based On The Convergence Of Sharp Operational Interests.
The Administration Of President Donald Trump Arrived In 2017 To Reinvigorate This Path And Grant It An Explicit American Cover Via The “Maximum Pressure” Strategy Against Iran And Withdrawal From The Nuclear Deal In May 2018, Steps That Garnered Warm And Justified Support From Tel Aviv, Riyadh, And Abu Dhabi. Despite That, The Book Reveals Another Revealing Moment In September 2019 When Saudi “Aramco” Oil Facilities In Abqaiq And Khurais Were Subjected To An Attack By Drones And Cruise Missiles Attributed To Iran, Where The Silent American Response And Refusal To Intervene Militarily Returned To Remind Gulf Citizens Of The Harsh Lesson: Washington Will Not Fight On Behalf Of Anyone Unless Its Direct Forces Are Attacked. This Particular Incident, The Authors Believe, Accelerated The Pace Of The Gulf Strategic Shift Toward Israel, Since The Conviction Solidified That Building A Solid Regional Defensive Line In Cooperation With The Hebrew State, And Benefiting From Its Advanced Defensive Systems And Deterrent Capabilities, Had Become An Inevitable Necessity That Broked No Delay, Transcending Traditional Diplomatic Frameworks Toward Formulating An Unwritten Functional Security Alliance In Face Of The Extended Threat From Tehran.
Technology As Silent Diplomacy: Penetrating Cyber Space And The Security Of Monarchical Systems
In This Pivotal Axis Of The Book, Authors Clive Jones And Yoel Guzansky Deconstruct The Technological And Cyber Dimension That Represents The Newest And Most Durable “Strategic Glue” In The Tacit Security Regime Between Israel And The Gulf Monarchies, Where Relations Are No Longer Confined To Classical Military Coordination Or Traditional Intelligence Exchange, But Have Moved Into A Wider And More Complex Horizon Represented By Exporting Advanced Security Technology. The Book Argues That Israel Succeeded Brilliantly In Transforming Its Superiority In Fields Of Cybersecurity, Advanced Surveillance Techniques, And Missile Defense Systems Into A Tool Of “Sharp-Edged Soft Power”, Used Not Only To Enhance External Security Against Iran And Its Proxies, But Also To Ensure Internal Stability And Protect Thrones In The Face Of Digital Age Challenges. This Qualitative Shift Reflects A Deep Israeli Understanding Of The Needs Of Gulf Regimes, Which Found In Israeli Technology An Ideal Technological Solution To Political And Security Dilemmas That Cannot Be Addressed By Traditional Diplomatic Means.
The Authors Explain How Israeli Technological Companies, Which Often Operate Under Cover Or Implicit Encouragement From The Security Establishment, Have Come To Play The Role Of “Technological Diplomat” That Opens Closed Doors Without The Need For Formal Political Normalization. For In The Absence Of Complete Trust In Western Suppliers Who Might Impose Ethical Or Legal Restrictions On The Use Of Surveillance And Control Technologies, Gulf Regimes Found In The “Israeli Model” A Partner Possessing The Most Advanced Technology In The World, Sharing With It The Same Vision Regarding The Necessity Of “Stability Above All Considerations”. The Book Analyzes How These Tech Deals—From Advanced Espionage Software To Cybersecurity Systems—Contributed To Creating A Network Of Shared Commercial And Professional Interests Between Security And Tech Elites From Both Sides, Creating An Institutional Reality That Cannot Be Reversed, Where Gulf Security Systems Have Become Structurally Dependent On Israeli Expertise In Securing Critical Infrastructure And Monitoring The Digital Space.
The Essence Of This Technological Cooperation, According To Jones And Guzansky, Lies In Its Being Seemingly “Unpoliticized”; It Is Conducted Via Private Companies And Commercial Contracts, Avoiding Political Embarrassment For Gulf Governments Before Their Peoples Or In Face Of International Criticisms Pertaining To Human Rights. Thus, Technology Transformed Into A Silent Diplomatic Mediator, Allowing For The Exchange Of Expertise And Consolidation Of Relations Away From The Eyes Of Public Opinion And The Complexities Of The Palestinian Cause, Which Remains A Barrier Confronting Overt Relations. The Authors See That This Cyber Cooperation Is Not Merely A Commercial Deal, But Rather A Manifestation Of What They Call The “Technological Security Node”, Which Protects Regimes From Internal Threats (Such As Digital Opposition) And External Threats (Such As Iranian Cyber Warfare), Making Israel An Indispensable Party In The Equation Of Survival And Stability For Gulf Kingdoms, A Role That Transcends By Multiples The Impact Of Aid Or Traditional Security Promises Historically Provided By Washington.
The Book Concludes This Part By Pointing Out That This Technological Interdependence Created A Kind Of “Functional Normalization” That Precedes Political Normalization By Long Distances, As Shared Technological And Security Interests Have Come To Constitute An Immunity Against Any Future Political Fluctuations. No Matter How Much Political Tensions Escalate Or Positions Diverge Concerning The Palestinian Cause, The Threads Of Intertwined Technological Partnership Remain Strong, Because They Touch The Nerve Of Direct National Security For Each Party, Rendering The Tacit Security Regime A Lived Strategic Reality And Not Merely A Temporary Political Bet, Which Later Paved The Way For Transforming This Cooperation From “Secret” To “Public” Via The Abraham Accords, Which Were Nothing Short Of A Culmination Of Long Years Of Work Behind The Scenes.
Outcomes Of The Tacit Regime And Future Bets: The Fragile Geopolitical Construction And Post-Overt Transformations
In This Concluding Section, Authors Clive Jones And Yoel Guzansky Address The Prospects Of Sustainability And Factors Of Fragility Inherent In The Core Of The “Tacit Security Regime” That Shaped Israeli-Gulf Relations For Decades Behind Closed Doors. The Book Argues That The Transition From Secret And Veiled Communication Channels To Horizons Of Diplomatic Exposure, Which Was Later Crowned By What Became Known As The Abraham Accords, Was Not A Break With The Past As Much As It Was A Natural And Calculated Emergence Of A Pattern Of Functional Strategic Partnership That Had Reached Structural Maturity. However, This Transition From “Tacit” To “Overt” Carries Within It, According To The Authors’ Analysis, New Dilemmas Touching The Essence Of The Political Legitimacy Of Gulf Regimes, Placing The Accords On A Testing Ground Ahead Of Any Large-Scale Military Escalation In The Occupied Palestinian Territories, A Reality Proving That The Palestinian Cause, Even If It Receded In The Priorities Of Ruling Elites, Remains A Decisive Emotional And Ideological Determinant In The Arab Street That Cannot Be Entirely Bypassed Without Heavy Internal Political Prices.
The Authors Shed Light On The Fundamental Discrepancies Among Gulf Approaches Themselves Toward This Regime; While Countries Like The UAE And Bahrain Rushed Toward Institutionalizing Relations And Turning Them Into Open Economic, Tourism, And Cultural Partnerships, Weighty Regional Powers Like The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia Adopt A More Cautious And Deliberate Approach. The Book Sees That Riyadh, With Its Religious Status As A Pole Of The Islamic World And Its Political Legacy Linked To The Arab Peace Initiative Of 2002, Realizes That The Price Of Comprehensive Overt Steps Must Be Matched By Real And Tangible Israeli Concessions Toward The Two-State Solution. This Gulf Differentiation Grants The Tacit Security Regime Structural Flexibility On One Hand, Yet Reveals On The Other Hand The Limits Of The Geopolitical Ceiling That Israel Can Reach In Its Regional Environment, Where Security Understandings Under The Table Remain The Safest And Most Sustainable Channel For Managing Shared Vital Interests Away From Legitimacy Crises And Media Clamor.
The Primary Analytical Lesson Drawn By Jones And Guzansky In Their Study Is That The Tacit Security Regime Between Israel And The Gulf Monarchies Represents A Unique Model Of “Realpolitik” In The Twenty-First Century; It Is A Functional Alliance Imposed By Direct Security Necessities And Shared Fears Of Iranian Expansion And Declining American Reliability, And Was Not The Product Of Value Or Cultural Convergence. Accordingly, The Future Of This Partnership Will Remain Governed By The Changing Dynamics Of The Nature Of The External Threat; Any Shift In Iranian Behavior, Or Any Major Strategic Repositioning By Washington In The Region, Might Rearrange Cost-Benefit Calculations For Gulf Capitals. The Book “Fraternal Enemies” Remains A Highly Important Academic And Intelligence Document, Having Succeeded In Decoding The Most Secret Relations In The Middle East, Presenting A Coherent Theoretical Framework Explaining How Historical Adversaries Can Become Strategic Partners Behind The Scenes, Without Ceasing Entirely To Be “Fraternal Enemies” In Public.
