The Bear In The Dark Continent
In The Summer Of The Year Two Thousand And Nineteen, And While The Eyes Of The World Were Turning Toward The Fretful Commercial Competition Between Washington And Beijing, The Russian City Of Sochi Hosted An Event That Reformulated The Priorities Of Geopolitics In The African Continent. The First Russian-African Summit, Which Was Chaired By Vladimir Putin In The Presence Of The Leaders Of Forty-Three African States, Was Considered As A Formal Proclamation Of The Return Of The “Russian Bear” To A Playing Field It Left By Force Subsequent To The Collapse Of The Soviet Union. And Ever Since That Time, A News Bulletin Hardly Passes By Without A Mention Of The “Wagner” Mercenaries In Libya Or Mali, Or Russian Weapon Deals That Have Come To Invade The Markets Of The Continent, Or Even The Soft Conflict Over The Extraction Of Uranium And Gold.
Amidst This Media And Political Clamor, Comes The Last Book Of The Researcher Samuel Ramani: “Russia In Africa: A Returning Great Power Or A Bellicose Pretender?“, Published By Hurst Publishing House, To Present The Most Deep And Comprehensive Dissection Of This Russian Return. Ramani Is Not Satisfied Only With Monitoring The Field Actions, But Rather Dives Deeply Into The Historic And Institutional Roots That Move The Decision-Maker In The Kremlin, Attempting To Answer An Existential Question: Does Russia Possess A Long-Term Strategy In Africa, Or Is It Merely An “Opportunity Seizer” Seeking To Destabilize The Western Influence In Reaction To Its Siege In Ukraine?
Beyond Putin: Deconstructing The “Legend” And The Reality
Ramani Initiates His Book By Challenging Four Prevailing Hypotheses In The Western Circles. The First Of Them, The One That Sees That The Russian Return Is Born Of The Moment Or A Direct Product Of The Ukrainian Crisis In The Year Two Thousand And Fourteen. Ramani Proves, Through A Meticulous Tracking Of The Diplomatic Paths, That The Russian Ambition Of Returning As A Great Power In Africa Crystallized Ever Since The Mid-Nineties, And Specifically During The Era Of “Yevgeny Primakov”, The Former Foreign Minister, Who Sought To Break The American Monopolistic Hegemony Long Before The Ascent Of Putin To The Summit Of Power.
The Second Hypothesis Which Is Refuted By The Book Is That The Russian Actions Are Purely “Transactionistic” And Devoid Of Strategic Vision. And Here Ramani Proposes A Striking Concept; And That Is The “Virtual Great Power”. For Russia, Despite Its Military And Security Influence That Is Escalating, Does Not Possess The Economic Base That Qualifies It To Competitively Oppose China Or The United States. For The Volume Of Russian Trade With Africa Remains Modest (Approximately Twenty Billion Dollars) In Comparison With India Or Turkey, Let Alone With The Chinese Giant. However, Moscow Succeeds In Creating An “Impression” Of The Great Power Through Low-Cost And High-Effect Security Interventions.
The Roots That Have Not Dried Up: From The Tsars To The Bolsheviks
It Is Not Possible To Understand The Present Russian Outburst Without Going Back To History, And This Is What Ramani Excels In By Allocating Chapters For The Reclamation Of The Soviet And Tsarist Heritage. The Writer Reminds Us That Russia, Contrary To The European Powers, Markets For Itself In Africa As A Power That “Never Colonized The Continent”. Rather, The Orthodox Religious Links With Ethiopia Date Back To The Nineteenth Century, When The Tsars Backed Emperor Menelik The Second Against The Italian Ambitions.
As For The Soviet Heritage, It Is The Largest “Symbolic Capital” For Moscow Today. Ramani Explains How The Soviet Union Invested In Building The African Elites Via Scholarships And Support Of The National Liberation Movements In Angola And Mozambique And South Africa. This Heritage Gives The Russian Diplomacy Today A “Golden Key” For Entry Into The African Presidential Palaces, Where The African Leaders Find In Moscow An Ally That Does Not Give Lessons In “Human Rights” And Does Not Place Liberal Conditions In Exchange For Security Cooperation.
The Decade Of The Nineties: The Bitter Fracture
Ramani Presents A Dark Image For What He Calls The “Lost Decade” In The Nineties. Subsequent To The Fall Of The Soviet Union, “Yeltsin’s” Russia Withdrew From Africa In A Dramatic Way, So It Closed The Embassies And Consulates And Assistance Stopped. This Withdrawal Was, In The Eyes Of The Hawks In Moscow, A Geopolitical “Betrayal” That Left The Continent As A Playground For The Western Influence.
However, And As The Book Clarifies, The Seeds Of The Return Were Planted In The Midst Of This Fracture. Russian Institutions, Such As The “Institute For African Studies” Attached To The Academy Of Sciences, Began Pressuring To Re-Evaluate And Give Regard To The Continent. And With The Arrival Of Putin To Power In The Year Two Thousand, These Pressures Were Transformed Into A Formal Policy Aiming To Use Africa As A Platform To Restore Russia’s Status As A Global Pole In A Multipolar System.
Multipolarity: Africa As An Arena For Settling Scores
The Central Thesis In Ramani’s Book Is That Russia Sees In Africa The Perfect “Laboratory” For Its Wished-For World System. Moscow Does Not Seek Only To Sell Weaponry Or Obtain Mining Contracts, But Rather It Aims To Undermine The International Legal Norms That Are Imposed By The West, And Specifically The System Of Sanctions. Through Supporting The Regimes Which Face Western Pressures (Such As Sudan During The Era Of Al-Bashir Or Zimbabwe), Russia Dedicates Itself As A “Guarantor Of Sovereignty” In Opposing What It Calls “Neo-Colonialism” Or The New Colonialism.
Ramani Uses The Term “Promotional Authoritarianism” To Describe The Kremlin’s Tactics; Where Moscow Supports The Stability Of The Authoritarian Regimes In Exchange For Obtaining A Strategic Foothold. This Approach Finds Broad Acceptance Among African Elites Who Are Sick Of The Western Conditionality, Which Makes Russia A “Necessary Partner” Despite The Weakness Of Its Financial Capacities In Comparison With The Rivals.
Gateways Of The North And The Belt Of Fire In The Sahel.. Russian Realism At Its Maximum Appearance
If Moscow Had Succeeded In Reviving The “Symbolic Capital” Of Its Soviet Heritage In The Dark Continent, Then The Application Of This Strategy Upon The Actual Field Of Reality Required Flexibility And Careful Geopolitical Maneuvering. In The Middle Chapters Of His Book, Samuel Ramani Takes Us In A Geographic And Political Journey That Initiates From The Shores Of The Mediterranean Sea In The North, Arriving At The Fretful Belt Of The African Sahel States. Here, The Speaking Over A “Multipolar System” Does Not Come To Be Merely A Diplomatic Slogan, But Rather Is Transformed To Weaponry Deals, And Virtual Military Bases, And Fretful Diplomatic Maneuvering.
Egypt And Russia: Partnership Of Necessity And Dancing With The Great Ones
Ramani Apportions A Significant Space For Analyzing The Russian-Egyptian Relations, Characterizing It As A Unique Model For A “Partnership Of Necessity”. The Writer Sees That Cairo, Under The Leadership Of President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Succeeded In Using The Rapprochement With Moscow As A Tool For Maneuvering And Solidifying The Strategic Independence In Opposing Washington, Specifically After The Tensions That Marked The Egyptian-American Relations In The Wake Of The Events Of The Year Two Thousand And Thirteen.
Russia, For Its Part, Caught The Opportunity Swiftly. Moscow Had No Need To Be Giving Lessons In Political Reform; Rather It Presented Immediate Alternatives Exemplified In Great Weaponry Sales (Such As Mig-Twenty Nine Fighter Planes And The Defensive Systems), Let Alone The Grand National Project Exemplified In Building The Al-Dabaa Nuclear Plant By Means Of The Russian “Rosatom” Company.
Nevertheless, Ramani Places His Hand Upon A Cardinal Point: This Partnership Remains “Calculated And Pragmatic” From The Two Parties. For Cairo, Despite Its Rapprochement With The Kremlin, Has Not Pushed Its Strategic And Historical Relations With The United States Or The European Powers To The Brink Of The Abyss, Rather It Has Employed The Russian Card By Means Of Wisdom To Restore Balance To Its External Policy. And Likewise, Russia Is Conscious That Egypt Is Not In The Process Of Inscribing Itself Beneath The Banner Of An “Anti-Western” Alliance Completely, Which Makes The Relation Between Them Constructed Upon The Mutual Interests Without Ideological Illusions.
The Libyan Problematic: Formal Diplomacy And The Shadows Of “Wagner”
In Opposite And Contrast To The Traditional Diplomatic Type In Egypt, Ramani Proposes The Libyan State-Of-Affairs As An Evidence And Proof Upon Russia’s Capacity For Managing A “Dual-Track Strategy”. In Libya, The Russian Action Was Divided Into Two Tracks:
The Formal, Recognized Path: Where The Russian Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Preserved Open Paths Of Communication With The Government Of National Accord (Then The Government Of National Unity) In Tripoli.
The Informal, Field Path: And Which Was Exemplified In Presenting The Direct Military And Logistical Support For General Khalifa Haftar And The Libyan National Army In The East, Via Its Quasi-Military Arm, The “Wagner” Group.
Ramani Clarifies How This Coarse Pragmatism Granted The Kremlin A Qualitative Feature; Where Moscow Was Able To Obtain And Reserve A Main Chair In Any International Settlement Negotiations Around The Future Of Libya (Such As The Berlin Path), Basing Itself Upon Its Military Influence Upon The Terrain In Sirte And Jufra, Without Being Forced To Endure The Political Or Legal Cost Directly For Its Military Intervention. Libya Was Not Merely A Goal In Itself, But Rather Was A Strategic “Crossing Bridge” And A Logistical Anchor Point That Facilitated For Russia Subsequently The Outburst Toward The Depth Of The African Continent And The South Of The Sahara.
The Belt Of Fire In The Sahel: The Security Alternative For Retracting France
The Book Moves Subsequent To That To Analyze The Dramatic Transformation In The African Sahel Region, And Specifically In Mali, Burkina Faso, And Niger. Ramani Sees That Russia Was Not The One Which “Made” The Crises In These States, Rather It, By Means Of An Opportunistic Ingenuity, Invested In The Terrible Failure Of The French And Western Strategy In Combatting Terrorism (Such As Operation Barkhane).
When The Anti-Paris Feelings Escalated In The African Street, And The Military Coups Followed Continually, Moscow Presented Itself As An “Alternative Savior”. The Russian Package Presented Upon The Ruling Military Councils Was Extremely Tempting: Political And Contractual Protection In The Security Council, And Direct Military Support Via Trainers And Combatants From “Wagner” (Which Transformed Subsequently To The “African Corps” Connected To The Russian Ministry Of Defense), All Of That Without Any Conditionality Pertaining To The Democratic Transformation Or Human Rights.
However, And Here The Critical Aspect Of Ramani Emerging, Did This Russian Recipe Succeed? The Writer Argues That The Russian Approach In The Sahel, Constructed Upon Pure Security Solutions Without Dealing With The Economic And Social Roots For The Crises, Did Not Lead To Real Stability. Rather On The Contrary, It Contributed In The Increment of The Pace Of Violence And Cases Of Displacement, Which Weakens The Russian Thesis Over The Long Term And Clarifies The Limits For The Capacity Of The “Virtual Great Power” Upon Building A Lasting Peace.
The Weapon Of Food And Energy: The Coarse Soft Power
Ramani Does Not Fail To Be Giving Regard To The Geoeconomic Dimensions Which Russia Has Employed As Tools Of Influence, Citing The Concomitants And Results Of The Russian-Ukrainian War In The Year Two Thousand And Twenty Two. For The Grain Crisis Demonstated How Moscow Had Been Capable For Playing Upon The Two Chords Of “Fear And Gratitude” In Africa. From One Angle, The War Caused The Threatening Of The Food Security For The Continent, And From Another Angle, Russia Profited From This Situation To Present Free Or Subsidized Grain Cargoes For Some Ally States (Such As Zimbabwe And Mali And Eritrea), Which Confirmed Its Image As A Guardian For The Continent In Opposing The “Western Siege”.
The Exact Same Matter Is Applicable Upon The Energy Sector; Where The Book Casts Light Upon The Pursuit By The Russian Companies Such As “Gazprom” And “Lukoil” For Investing In Gas And Oil Projects In The North And West of Africa, Not Only For Obtaining Financial Returns, But Rather To Prevent The Formulation Of An Alternative European Strategy For The Complete Forbearance Over Russian Gas Via Compensating It With African Sources.
Beyond The Sahel.. The Machine Of Propaganda And The Future Wagers Of “The Bear”
If The Gateways Of The African North And The Belt Of The Sahel Had Exemplified For Russia Theaters For Fast Military And Diplomatic Maneuvering, Then The Russian Penetration Toward The Depth Of The Continent And Its South Exemplifies The Core Of The Thesis Which Was Formulated By Samuel Ramani Around The Extension Of The “Virtual Great Power”. Here, In The Central African Republic And South Africa, Moscow Tests The Limits Of Its Capacity For Transforming The Security And Symbolic Influence To A Lasting Strategic Temposition.
The Central African Republic: “The Complete Laboratory” For Russian Ruling
Ramani Allocates A Most Critically Essential Chapter For Analyzing The State-Of-Affairs In The Central African Republic (CAR), Considering It As “The Classic Laboratory” And The Most Evident Model For How The Russian Influence Being Privatized. In This Country, The Role Of The “Wagner” Mercenaries (Or The African Corps Presently) Was Not Only Confined To Presenting Military Support For President Faustin-Archange Touadéra In Opposing The Rebel Groups; Rather They Transformed To A “Republican Guard” Protecting The Presidential Palace Itself.
The Writer Clarifies How Russia Penetrated In The Joints Of The State Via Bartering Security For Natural Resources; Where The Companies Connected To The Kremlin Were Granted Grandiose Privileges For Prospection For Gold And Diamonds And Uranium, Let Alone The Controlling Over Vital Sectors Like The Timbers. Ramani Sees That The Model Of The Central African Republic Is The Model Which Russia Attempts To Reiterate In Other Hotbeds, Where The Ruling Elite Becomes Mortgaged Completely For The Security Survival Which Is Facilitated By Moscow, Which Guarantees For The Latter A Political Loyalty Unconditionally In The International Spheres.
South Africa: Reviving The Alliance Of The “BRICS” And The Struggling Memory
On Opposite And Contrast To The Rough Security Controlling In Central Africa, Russia Casts Itself To Appearance In South Africa From A Gateway Completely Diverse: The Gateway of The High Diplomacy And The International Economic Blocs. Here, Ramani Goes Back To History To Be Reminding Us That The Ruling Party In Pretoria (African National Congress Party – ANC) Does Not Forget The Grandiose Military And Logistical Support Which Was Presented By The Soviet Union For It In Its Long War Against The System Of Racial Separation (Apartheid).
This “Historical Debt” Being Invested Wisely In The Modern Era Through The Bloc Of “BRICS” (BRICS). Ramani Analyzes How South Africa Has Come To Be The Most Prominent Defender Over The Russian Vision For A Multipolar World System, And Which Gained Appearance In The Position Of Pretoria That Being “Positively Neutral” From The Ukrainian War, And Its Refusing For The Committing For The Western Sanctions, Rather And Its Hosting For The Joint Naval Maneuvers With Russia And China. Nevertheless, Ramani Points Toward The Existence of An Internal Division In South Africa; Where The Opposition Parties And Some Civil Society Organizations Be Opposing This Throwing Itself In The Russian Embraces, Which Makes This Alliance Mortgaged For The Internal Political Balances.
War Of The Minds: The Machine Of Propaganda And “Ending The Intellectual Colonialism”
It Is Not Possible For Reading Ramani’s Book Without Abiding For A Long Time Confronting His Creative Analyzing For “The Cyber And Informational War” Which Is Led By Russia In Africa. The Writer Sees That Moscow Had Succeeded And Achieved A Brilliant Success In “The War Of Narratives” Via Employing Grandiose Informational Networks Like (RT) And (Sputnik), And The Local Digital Platforms, And The Social Communication Accounts Pertaining To “The Machine Of The Informational Flies”.
The Russian Strategy Here Being Constructed Upon The Playing Over The Chords Of The Historical Grievances For The Africans Against The Old Colonial Powers (Specifically France And Britain). The Informational Machine For Russia Is Promoting For A Speech Pivoting Around “Helping Africa On Ending The Intellectual And Economic Colonialism”, And Presenting Russia As A Benignant Power Supporting The National Sovereignty Without Conditions. Ramani Proves That This Propaganda Succeeded In Transforming The Anti-Western Feelings In The African Streets To Gushing Popular Support Waves For Russia, Being Translated In The Raising Of The Russian Flags In The Protests Of Bamako And Ouagadougou And Niamey.
The Muffled Partnership With Beijing, And The Maneuvering Of Drought In The Nile Basin
It Is Not Possible For Completing The Geopolitical Scene For Russia In Africa Without Probing The Depths For Two Thorny Files Exemplifying An Object Of Attention For The Observers And The Decision Makers; The First Is The Nature Of The Relation Between “The Russian Bear” And “The Chinese Dragon” In This Common Continent, And The Second Is The Russian Approach For The Files Of Waters And The Regional Security In East Africa And The Nile Basin Specifically.
Russia And China In Africa: A Strategic Alliance Or A Silent Competition?
Samuel Ramani Initiates In His Analyzing For The Russian-Chinese Relations In Africa From Deconstructing The Prevailing Western Sight Which Imaging Them As “A Unified Authoritarian Block” Coordinating Its Actions By The Ruler And The Pen To Undermine The Western Influence. The Writer Sees That The Reality Upon The Terrain Endures Dynamics More Complicated; For The Partnership Between Moscow And Beijing In Africa Is “A Tactical And Limited Ceiling Partnership” And Is Not An Integrationist Alliance.
Ramani Turns Attention Toward The Existence Of A Non-Proclaimed Labor Division (Division Of Labor) Imposing Itself For The Judgment Of Actual Fact; For China Is “The Economic Giant” Which Possessing The Money, And The Infrastructure, And Projects Of “The Belt And The Path”, And The Billion Dollar Loans Which Reconfiguring The Economics Of The Continent. In The Facing, Russia Advances As “A Security Contractor” Skillful In Presenting The Fast Military Support, And Protecting The Regimes, And Managing The Crises Via Agile And Low-Cost Tools.
However, This Division Does Not Negate Spaces Of The Muffled Competition; For Beijing Does Not Be Beholding At All Times With An Eye Of Acceptability Toward The Rough And Non-Expected Russian Actions (Such As The Actions Of The Wagner / The African Corps), And Which Might Threatened The Stability Of The Investment Environment Which Is Needed By China For Protecting Its Projects And Guaranteeing The Outburst Of The Raw Materials. And Similarly, Moscow Is Conscious That The Chinese Gushing Economic Influence Might Swallowed In The End The Competitive Political Margins For Russia. Nevertheless, Ramani Concludes To That The Two Parties Are Taking Care Of Extreme Severity Over Non-Transforming This Silent Competition To An Open Clashing, So Long That The Largest Common Goal Being The Breaking For The Western Unipolar Hegemony In The Continent.
Moscow And The File Of Nile Waters: Positively Neutral And The Strategic Maneuvering
In The Chapters Which Covering The Region Of The African Horn And The Nile Basin, Ramani Analyzes By Means of Intelligence The Russian Diplomacy Toward One For The Most Complicated Regional Crises: The Crisis For “The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam” And The Conflict Over The Quotas Of Nile Waters. Here, Appears “The Russian Careful Pragmatism” At Its Maximum Appearance; Where Moscow Find Itself Confronting A Dilemma Of Balancing Between Two Important Strategic Partners: Egypt (Its Large Pragmatic Gateway In The North) And Ethiopia (Its Historical Ally Since The Tsarist And Soviet Era And Its Anchor Point In The African Horn).
The Writer Points Toward That Russia Being Adopting A Strategy of “Positively Neutral” In This File; For It Be Avoiding For Taking A Proclaimed Political Position Sharpened Which Bias Toward One Party Upon The Facing For The Other In The Security Council, And It Be Calling Regularly Toward Solving The Crisis Via The Negotiations And The African Solutions By Means of The Patronage of The African Union.
However, And Behind This Diplomatic Neutrality, Ramani Sees That Moscow Employed The Crisis For Deepening Its Binary Influence With The Two Parties; For While It Confirms And Strengthens Weaponry Deals And The Partnership Nuclear And Economic With Cairo, It Signed At The Exact Same Time Binary Cooperation Agreements Military And Security Strategic With Addis Ababa During The Zenith For Its Tensions With The West For Cause Of The “Tigray” War. Pertaining For Russia, For The Preserving Over The Hair of Muawiyah With All of The Parties In The Nile Basin Giving It The Capacity For Positioning Itself As “A Potential Mediator” Not Biased, And Increments The Need For The Regional Powers For The Lines Of Communication Open With The Kremlin.
Final Evaluation: Does The Contract For The Bear Getting Untied?
In The Concluding Chapters For The Book, Samuel Ramani Returns To Be Answering Over The Cardinal Question Which He Posed In The Title: Does Russia Be A Returning Great Power Or A Bellicose Pretender?
The Answer Comes Complicated And Neutral: Russia Is Not Merely “A Pretender” Passing; For It Succeeded Actually In Changing The Geopolitical Map For The Continent, And Being From The Impossible of Transgressing It In The Files Of Security And Energy. However, At The Exact Same Time, It Remains “A Virtual Great Power” Enduring And Suffer From Severe Structural Fragility.
For The Russian Model Being Constructed By An Excessive way Upon Low-Cost And High-Risk Tools (Such As The Mercenaries And The Propaganda), And Lacking For “The Real Soft Power” Constructing Upon The Economic Developing, And The Lasting Investments, And Building The Infra Structure, And It Is The Playing Field Which China And The United States And The European Union Excel In By A Vast Difference.
Moreover, For The Tight Connected Between The Russian Influence And Personal Figures Specific (Such As How Was The Case With Yevgeny Prigozhin Before His Assassination, Or The Nature of The Personal Relations With The Coup Leaders) Making This Influence Subject For the Sudden Collapsing In The Case Of Occurring For Any Change In The Leading For These States Or In The Kremlin Itself.
