Analysis: As the conflict in Sudan intensifies, international observers are shifting their gaze toward the eastern borders, specifically Ethiopia. Addis Ababa’s role is no longer confined to hosting political initiatives; disturbing intelligence and journalistic reports have emerged regarding direct military and logistical support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), reaching the point of established training and supply camps within Ethiopian territory.
The “Le Monde” and “Critical Threats” Reports: The New Supply Route The French newspaper Le Monde recently published an exposé revealing a reorganization of arms delivery networks to the RSF, now routed through Ethiopia. According to their sources, mysterious cargo airlines, such as Batot Air, have been operating intensive flights from the UAE to Ethiopian airports, from where shipments are transported overland into Sudan.
Similarly, a study by the Critical Threats project noted a “suspicious surge” in military deliveries to Ethiopia since late 2025. It suggested that Addis Ababa may have agreed to serve as a “rear base” or assembly point for the RSF near the shared border, explaining the increased military pressure on Sudan’s eastern fronts.
Geopolitical Motives: Why Ethiopia? Experts believe Ethiopia’s stance is driven by several intertwined files:
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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Addis Ababa sees a weakened central authority in Khartoum as an opportunity to impose a new reality on the Nile waters, away from Sudanese-Egyptian coordination.
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The Al-Fashaga Border Dispute: The historical dispute over the Al-Fashaga farmlands remains central. The Sudanese Army’s preoccupation with war provides Ethiopia an opportunity to regain control or establish permanent influence through local allies.
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Regional Hegemony: Ethiopia seeks to bolster its position as a dominant regional power by aligning with regionally backed actors.
Conclusion: Ethiopia faces grave accusations. While it claims neutrality and mediation, field realities and investigative reports suggest it has become a “lung” through which the RSF breathes militarily, making it a primary party to the crisis rather than a mere mediator.
